Impact of Trump’s tariff policy

There are signs that U.S. ports are about to be overwhelmed by a large influx of imported copper as traders rush to ship goods before the tariffs that U.S. President Trump may impose take effect.

According to four people familiar with the shipping situation, 100,000 to 150,000 tons of refined copper are expected to arrive in the United States in the next few weeks. If they all arrive in the same month, they are expected to exceed the record of 136,951 tons of U.S. monthly imports in January 2022.

It is reported that commodity traders including Trafigura Group, Glencore Plc and Gunvor Group are rerouting large amounts of copper originally destined for Asia to the United States. Some of the people familiar with the matter said that due to the huge volume, traders are booking additional storage space in New Orleans and Baltimore to accommodate the goods. The main reason for this scene is undoubtedly that Trump ordered the U.S. Department of Commerce to launch a copper tariff investigation on the grounds of national security at the end of last month. Trump’s previous statements on such tariffs have raised concerns about whether goods can be shipped before the tariffs take effect, and the lengthy Commerce Department investigation actually provides a potential window for metal transportation.

Goldman Sachs Group and Citigroup currently expect the United States to impose a 25% import tariff on copper by the end of the year. And because copper is an irreplaceable rigid demand, even if tariffs are implemented, American copper buyers will still have to continue to purchase imported metals – the current US consumption is twice its domestic production. Many American buyers are now seeking to increase purchases from countries such as Chile and Peru, and the market is generally hoarding copper stocks. Metals from mines in Mexico and Canada may turn to the European market as Trump has threatened to impose comprehensive tariffs on two important neighboring trading partners. And the largest copper supplier in the US market, Chile’s state-owned copper giant Codelco, is working hard to meet its new demand after meeting with American customers in March.
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